I think that is the number of application in hand for processing not necessarily backlogs. Further the quota available till last month was 18652 and was reduced to 16652 in November. This should mean that they should have cleared all the lodged applications till 21st june to exhaust this quota (hope I am not wrong) even if it was 16652. Also, not all of them will be grants - there will delayed due to change in circumstances, rejections, NJL and others. So I am still doubtful that the delay is due to the quota getting over. As I have posted above where the news is that Southern Australia has suspended the 190 sponsorship, which might be indication that other states will follow soon as stated in another post
Visa Grant Delay 189
@Felix101 There are couple of more things to notice in the BP0031.03 First, the total number of grants in 2018-19 are 31,679 where as the quota was 43,990 which means they were short by 12000+. Second, the grants issued till oct are lesser and November onwards increases (oct - 1486 where Nov - 3125 and gradually increases) the point is usually DOHA is miser in the beginning and then picks up the speed in the later half. Same thing happens for invite as well if you notice
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Hi, Felix101 and everyone. Itâs not possible that DHA has filled all the spots for 189.
- The data in BP0031.03 is only up to 31-May, so the number of backlog and grant doesnât include June. Assume 3000 grants in June (same as Apr and May), the backlog bring to 2019/20 is just around 13000.
- According to the latest data received by an immi agent, the 189 backlog up to 31/08/2019 is 12132 (including NZ stream). Assume 2000+ new applications during Jul and Aug, the number of 189 quota used can be calculated as 13000 + 2000 - 12132 = 3000(roughly). The point I want make is that, the delay in 189 should be due to other reasons, instead of running out of quota for the financial year. Hopefully almost everyone of us should get a grant at least by the end of 06/2020. Not so worry about the 18-33 months thing, it makes no sense for DHA to waste thousands of 189 quota this financial year and then carry a huge backlog to next year.
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There is one grant today in trackerâŠHappy to see 4 grants in November in trackerâŠ
Good insights, i would like to add that another visa was granted! Lodged in Feb 14 2019, hold on fellas!
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Applied on 27th November 2018, 1st CO contact 22 March 2019, 2nd on 28th June 2019, still waiting 
Anyone waiting since 2018?
@matcha250 couldnât agree more. Moreover, 3000 remains that too after all the visa upto June 2019 has been granted (and not only processed but granted) but that is not the case. if they would have consumed the quota for 2019/20 that would mean everyone till June would have got the visa grants
Yes Sishir ⊠waiting since 15 Nov 2018
Rabbit19. I reiterate, I hope I am wrong. I also hope that masha250âs immi agent is correct. I also want to point out that I have not seen the data s/he is referring to and can therefore not comment on it.
Based on what I have seen, please note the following. First, grant quotas are not carried over to the following year. If government does not hit the maximum number of grants for that year, the number of âmissedâ grants falls away.
You are correct that initially there were a maximum of 18,652 allocations for the 189 visa stream and that since November this had been reduced to a maximum of 16,652 due to 2,000 allocations being redirected towards regional visas. What you are not considering is that an additional 2,000 allocations are reserved for the New Zealander 189 visa stream. i.e. rest of the world will only have a maximum of 14,652 places allocated to it.
If 15,719 visas were in in the pipeline by 31 May 2019 (Thanks matcha250 for pointing out the date), then we can still assume that about the same number (or maybe slightly less) visa applicants were carried over to the 2019/20 financial year. For me, this still translate into about 500 to 1000 more applicants than potential grants.
Due to the skewed invitations with very few invitations in April (100), May (100) and June (100) 2019, we can safely assume that the bulk of applications that formed part of this backlog would be those who applied in before April and some other unfortunate individuals. If this is correct, then it can be assumed that all of June, May and April are unlikely to receive grants in this financial year and that most of March and some of February may also not receive grants this year.
If I look at MyImmiTrackerâs data, then this is pretty much what can be seen with about 3% of those who applied in 2018, 12.5% of those who have applied in January 2019, 41.8% those who have applied in February and 93.8% of those who had applied in March, who have not yet received grants.
The trickle of grants we are seeing appears to be all old cases that COs have started earlier in the year (around June 2019), that go delayed and which they are now completing. The handful of new CO contacts are probably replacements for visa grants that were declined. But then, who really knows with the limited information that DHA provides us with.
One area of hope is that the 190 steam runs out of applications, which based on processing timeframes, new application numbers and number of grants, may actually happen long before the financial year end. Also, the new regional visas (491/492) will take some time to get of the ground, while the âtalent visaâ are not nearly performing at a level where it will fill its 5,000 quota. These factors may all contribute to DHA potentially deciding to revert some of those diverted visa grants back to the 189 visa stream. (Iscah wrote a nice piece on this on their website: https://www.iscah.com/wp_files/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Programshortfall2020.pdf).
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@Felix101 I am trying to understand your point, however, the data in the BP0031.03 reference docs also includes the New zealand stream, so again the number of grants allocated stands at 16,652. (âNote 3: Data for subclass 189 includes points tested and New Zealand pathway applicants.â) Correct if I am wrong, but doesnât DHA process on first come first serve basis. So my calculation is this - Back log on 31st May: 15179 (this includes New Zealand pathway) Total Quota Available for 2019/20: 16,652 (this includes New Zealand pathway) Since April the number of Invites were 100 till june so new applications (maximum)- 900 (assuming average 3 persons per invite) Total Backlog in 2019/20 - 16,079 Total Quota - 16,652
So, if the quota is exhausted this would mean all 16,079 have got the grants ( and not just processed). This is the point I am trying to make. May be I am missing something or trying to be extra hopeful
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Hi anubha, did the CO ever contact u? And may I ask What is your application last update date in immi account.
I am waiting since 8th Dec. 2018.
@Sishir ⊠yes Sishir⊠CO contacted me on 21 Feb 2019. I have submitted the docs on March starting. The last updated date is showing as 21 Feb only.
Rabbit19. You are correct. The 16,652 does include the 2,000 places for the New Zealand stream. BUT, according to several sources, the uptake by New Zealanders are extremely poor. As far as I understand it, these visas are going to go to waste because they cannot be allocated to âotherâ nationalities.
Please help me understand these backlog points, does it mean DHA would not issue fresh Invite in 189 category since backlog is there equal to total cap. Sorry I may sound naive.
Could you please tell under which occupation ?
Computer network and system engineer, 263111, with 70 points, CO contacted on 19th march for wifeâs birth certificate, provided same day, but since then no update, and it is in received state only, not even further assessmentâŠ
@Felix101, I read all your posts. Thanks a lot for sharing your perfect analysis. I want to make 2 points that seems contradictory to your conclusions: 1- As we all know they have issued 1500 invitations on October 2019. If they have already filled the quota for 2019-2020 by their backlogs till Jun 2019 (according to you), then why they increase their backlogs in 2019? 2- Considering all the assumptions, this trend of consuming the next years quota with the previous yearâs invitations is going to be continuously repetitive year after year unless they decrease their invitations dramatically in a specific year. Although your assumptions and analysis are completely reasonable, I guess DHA has not yet reached to an ultimate decision on how to deal with this conflict and we see somehow contradict actions like issuing 1500 invitations on Oct 2019.
Hi Guys, I lodged my visa application for 189 SC visa on 31st March 2019 and hoping for the Visa grant by end of this year Dec 2019? Any hope of that now?
Cheers, Shiven
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