Hello… What was the lodgement date for this grant
Visa Grant Delay 189
I have crunched some numbers using the MyImmi data, official DHA data (and some very dodgy assumptions that may or may not be correct) and concluded that (1) the quota for 189 visa grants for the 2019/20 financial year had been filled, (2) The number of visas processed for 190 is significantly more than new applications received and may run out before the end of the 2019/20 financial year and (3) the 489 visa processing has slowed slightly, but if current processing times remain, then all applications should be completed within the next 15 to 20 weeks.
I suspect that the 189 visa grants that we are seeing are historical cases that had been delayed for whatever reason. Our only real hope is that 190 applications runs out and that they revert to 189 applications. If not, then we will only see visa grants for 189 applications in the new financial year starting July 2020.
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The 2019/2020 financial year just started… how can the quota been filled already? They havent been giving much grants at all
I couldn’t agree with you, as far as I read (somewhere), for 2019-'20, approx. 18k+ slots are allocated only for subclass 189. From 1st July to till date, I dont think, they’ve already given out that many grants.
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Yes, we Haven’t even seen 8 grants in this group and we have people waiting from December as well. So its not possible that 18k + slot are filled. Moreover, I would place my bet on “Nov Policy changes”, “Limited Staff” and “190 Prioritization from govt” as the major reasons of delay.
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Maybe, but without trying to get to technical, consider the following.
According to the official immigration program planning levels, for 2019/20 financial year, government changed the number of 189 visa grants to about 16,652, less than half of previous years. According to some news reports, this had since been reduced to 13,832 to accommodate additional regional visa grants.
According to the Department of Home Affairs, 2019 ( BP0031.03 ), on 21 June 2019, there were 15,719 189-visa applications on hand of which 7,101 were primary and 8,618 were secondary applications. The point is, that this financial year started with a backlog larger than the number of grants that will be given this financial year.
Since April, May and June 2019 only had 100 invites each, it is safe to assume that those in March (1,490 invitations) will make up the bulk of those unfortunate enough to exceed the financial year quota. The same applies for those who applied in January and February whose file was for whatever reason at the back of the pile. Since I applied in April, there is a high probability that I will only receive a grant in July or August 2019.
Also note that MyImmiTracker, which has a significant database of applications, at best, represents about 8% of the total number of applications. This forum most likely represent less than 0.1% of all applications. Although the visa grants is a nice indicator, I don’t think we can necessarily rely on it to be statistically relevant.
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Good numbers, in short - due to the heavy backlog and reduction in 189 cap to accomodate more regional applicants ( together with the reasons I mentioned above) it would make sense to see a slow down of 189 visa grants but not the complete stoppage for months. This complete stoppage indicates that this has more to do with Priority ( 190 over 189) , limited staff and November changes. In Nov, we have started seeing some CO contacts and grants ( not just for the old pending cases but also for March Applicants as shown in Immitracker chart ) - this means they have rectified at least 1 concern from above. Regarding the percentage of people in this group and whether that would be a good indicator - in the cases of visa, I would say yes. If a couple of people around my lodgement date gets CO contact/grant , I wont mind assuming that my case must be getting processed and I can hear something in a month. 
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I am still of the opinion that there was not much of backlog as per the reports on DHA. Below is the key take away
During the period 2008–09 to 2017–18, Australia’s permanent migration outcome fell by 5.2 per cent, of which: • Skill stream visas fell by 3.2 per cent, with: o Points tested visas—down 1.5 per cent o Employer Sponsored visas—down 6.6 per cent o Business Innovation and Investment visas—down 1.9 per cent. • Family and Child stream visas fell by 9.4 per cent, with: o Partner visas—down 5.5 per cent o Parent visas—down 13.3 per cent o Child visas—up 3.5 per cent o Other Family visas—down 77.8 per cent.
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Nik-hill. I truly hope you are correct and I am wrong. Considering the number of grants per day and the reduction of grant waiting time, the 190 visa is definitely being prioritised. i.e. I don’t think that staff shortages is the problem, but rather resource allocation based on new strategic priorities.
Rabbit19. I am not sure what your point is. Maybe you can just explain the significance of your numbers to me. Based on what I have read, the government is purposefully reducing the number of permanent immigrants. This is reflected in the official immigration program planning levels which is published annually.
Further note that the backlog numbers I used are official DHA information. You can find the document on their website if you use the reference number (BP0031.03). i.e.There was a significant backlog since on 21 June 2019 (which is nine days before the financial year end), there were 15,719 189-visa applications on hand.
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Hi, Felix. Shake hands with you！I totally agree with your opinions about (2) and (3) in previous post. What I am not sure is whether 189 visa grants have been filled, considering that there can be a large amount of fake EOIs around. Also, I think the immitracker indeed gives some indications to some extent, representing around 10% in my opinion. However, since newer invitations are very few, usually in 100, more recent cases may not represent the true number very much, this is mathematically plausible.
190 truly has a higher priority these days, but the limited stuff number may still affect the overall processing speed. Moreover, I think the gov is struggling with the detailed rules of new 491 visa, wasting their extra time and efforts.
What we can do is to simply wait some point, e.g. the finish processing of the majority of delayed 190, new rules in Nov., or even a degradation of economy indicators in major cities due to the sharp reduction of new immigrants… I think things may get better early next year. This is a long journey for us, and we should be patient enough to reach success! Let’s hope and wait~
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There are just 4 working weeks left before the xmas break kicks in. I hope some more March Applicants get CO contact or Grants by the end of 2019. Then maybe we April applicants can have hope of some movement in Feb.
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what about the NOV-JAN cases which are still pending
Fine, hope of some movement in July 
Wondering if anyone has had to submit bank statements to prove employment?
Lets see when the table turn around it could be any way either your or others but do not lose hope
what bank statement can you please elaborate your question
These are the transactions that reflects the monthly salary credited to your bank account. Department sometimes asks for this document to validate the employment.
Just read in iscah post on facebook, South Australia temporarily suspends 190 state sponsorships. May be other states will follow soon. Probably that is the reason for faster processing of the existing 190s to clear it off. Probably they will soon get rid of 190
I believe , this will help to boost 189 grants now ?
I do hope so, since 190 use to give pathway to PR even if you do not work in sponsored state by getting NOC, whereas 491 only offers PR if you have worked in the state for 3 years. So this would mean that the states will prefer 491 over 190