Visa Grant Delay 189
Hey Robin!!! You did really good analysis. So according to you when can the March - April applicants expect update like Direct Grant or CO Reqmt? By which month you reckon?
people are waiting since Nov18 and you are talking about March-April applicants 
Its really hard to tell but if we relate the total invites given since July at 3200, they could invite roughly 7000 more until June 2020. This is around 80% of the 12000 slots for onshore/offshore 189 applicants, or 1000 invites per month on the high side. We can assume that the backlog will be maintained at around ~11000 if the CO processing and Invite breaks even.
For the past months since the backlog was dropped to around 12k, rate of visa grants per month is just 200-300. Total visa applicants that applied starting march is around 8500, that gives us around 4000 cases before March that is being handled by DHA inclusive of the ones with CO contact, and possibly cases for direct grant.
In my opinion if the trend continues, it would take 12-16 months for a visa grant. Again this is just my opinion, based from the numbers provided by DHA. We just have to patiently wait and go on with our lives. Competition for the 189 visa is at its highest so we should atleast be thankful that were almost at the finish line.
Cheers.
Buddy Nov18 applicants must have got CO contact at-least. Unline March 2019 applicants who have had any CO contact yet.We are waiting for almost 9 months now…
March applicants have waited for almost 9 months now. May be next month or Jan they might issue grants…
Hi Robin, thx for the analysis. Just wondering why they need to keep a backlog of 12000 at all times?
And according to your theory, they may have to invite at least another 4000 people to move on to March applicants. And thatls at least in 4-8 mths time…
I know atleast 4-5 applicants here and Expat Forum combined who lodged in Sep 2018 - Nov 2018 and haven’t received any CO requests yet and here we are discussing about March and April applicants and their timelines. I’m a jan 2019 applicant with 2 CO contacts, last one in July. we have to just wait and watch, no amount of data or analysis will give any insight into what is the future plan of DHA.
You got CO contact in July 2019.Could you let me know what did the CO asked for? What kind of documents were not present for CO?
By your logic you shouldn’t have even been contacted by CO but you were. Probably you could have got DG in July itself if not for the additional docs requirement by the CO.
You can check my case for complete details. CO contact for form 815 for spouse medical related thing.
I know I was going to get a contact for 815 but my agent didn’t allow me to preload the Form 815, so after the first contact had to wait 2 months for 2nd contact and then the endless wait from then on.
So even though it could have been a grant in July I’m still waiting for an update till now. So you cant really control things like this apart from hoping and waiting.
well Jan 2019 applied till now no co contact in that case what will happen 300 days passed
well my self applied in Jan no contact you talking about March-April is it fair for applicant NOV-JAN no co contact and they will jump to march
You should fire you agent.You were suppose to upload all the docs post ITA and visa lodging date… You could have got DG by now. Anyways good luck and hope you get the grant soon
well as you know they are no progress in 189 these days
One applicant from March (march 23 2019) got DG on Nov 21 2019
yes but its all depend on co what abt others
No Reputed MARA agent will allow pre upload of Form 815. this is not something like a prerequisite document for visa application. It is a special form requested by CO for applicants who has undergone 3 months of TB tests and got cleared by the health center.
There is a 1 % chance that CO might not request for form 815 in such cases and agents will ask us to take that chance and not pre upload the 815. Signing a form 815 generally means that once you enter Australia you agree to contact BUPA for a health check up.
see what is the whole and sole point form 815 or grants we should wait for the grants