How long can I expecte the grant after VAC2 payment?

Hi, I was required to pay VAC2 on 12/12/2018 and I did on the same day. It has been three months, but I have not get my visa. Also, my health check expired at the end of December 2018.

My questions are:

  1. Will I be required to do a new health check?
  2. How big is the chance that I get refused?

Thanks everyone.